( Reuters ) New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week and the number of Americans on jobless rolls declined to a near 44-1/2-year low, pointing to a rapidly tightening labor market.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 218,000 for the week ended June 9, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims data for the prior week was unrevised.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 224,000 in the latest week. The Labor Department said claims for Maine and Hawaii were estimated last week.
The four-week moving average of initial claims, viewed as a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 1,250 to 224,250 last week.
The labor market is considered to be close to or at full employment, with the jobless rate at an 18-year low of 3.8 percent. The unemployment rate has dropped by three-tenths of a percentage point this year. It is near the Federal Reserve’s forecast of 3.6 percent by the end of this year
- There are 6.7 million job openings and just 6.4 million available workers to fill them, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- April marked the second month in a row that there were more vacancies than available hires, a phenomenon that had not happened before 2018.
( CNBC ) The jobs market has reached what should be some kind of inflection point: there are now more openings than there are workers.
April marked the second month in a row this historic event has occurred, and the gap is growing.
According to the monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey released Tuesday, there were just shy of 6.7 million open positions in April, the most recent month for which data are available. That represented an increase of 65,000 from March and is a record.
The number of vacancies is pulling well ahead of the number the Bureau of Labor Statistics counts as unemployed. This year is the first time the level of the unemployed exceeded the jobs available since the BLS started tracking JOLTS numbers in 2000.
As of April, the total workers looking and eligible for jobs fell to 6.35 million, a decrease from 6.58 million the previous month. The number fell further in May to 6.06 million, though there is no comparable JOLTS data for that month.
The US economy suddenly looks like it’s unstoppable
- Friday’s economic data provided evidence the U.S. economy is heading into the second half of 2018 with strong momentum.
- Nonfarm payrolls beat expectations while manufacturing and construction indexes both showed accelerated growth.
- Economists are slowly ratcheting up expectations for growth through the end of the year, with widely followed measures putting the second quarter at between 3.6 percent and 4.8 percent.
Friday’s data provided convincing evidence that domestic growth remains intact even if other developed economies are slowing. A better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report coupled with a convincing uptick in manufacturing and construction activity showed that the second half approaches with a tail wind blowing.
“The fundamentals all look very solid right now,” said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC. “You’ve got job growth and wage gains that are supporting consumer spending, and tax cuts as well. There’s a little bit of a drag from higher energy prices, but the positives far outweigh that. Business incentives are in good shape.”
The day started off with the payrolls report showing a gain of 223,000 in May, well above market expectations of 188,000, and the unemployment rate hitting an 18-year low of 3.8 percent.
Then, the ISM manufacturing index registered a 58.7 reading — representing the percentage of businesses that report expanding conditions — that also topped Wall Street estimates. Finally, the construction spending report showed a monthly gain of 1.8 percent, a full point higher than expectations.
Put together, the data helped fuel expectations that first-quarter growth of 2.2 percent will be the low-water point of 2018.
“May’s rebound in jobs together with yesterday’s report of solid income growth and the rise in consumer confidence points to the economy functioning very well,” the National Retail Federation’s chief economist, Jack Kleinhenz, said in a statement. “Solid fundamentals in the job market are encouraging for retail spending, as employment gains generate additional income for consumers and consequently increase spending.”
The most recent slate of widely followed barometers could see economists ratchet up growth expectations.
Related link: Black unemployment falls to the lowest level since 1972
- “I’ve got the economy set up well for him,” Obama said. “No facts. No consequences. They can just have a cartoon.”
- Obama wondered whether his presidency came 10 or 20 years too early.
( CNBC ) Former President Barack Obama struggled with the result of the 2016 presidential election, which ended in victory for President Donald Trump, according to The New York Times’ review of the upcoming memoir by Obama advisor Ben Rhodes.
In “The World as It Is,” Rhodes wrote that Obama endured a series of emotions following Trump’s election and focused on cheering up his staff before sinking into disbelief.
Rhodes wrote that Obama was shocked that Americans elected a “cartoon.”
“I’ve got the economy set up well for him,” Obama said. “No facts. No consequences. They can just have a cartoon.”
The economy significantly improved under Obama, who took office during the financial crisis. The unemployment rate peaked at 10 percent in 2009, Obama’s first year in the White House, but it had fallen to 4.7 percent by the time he handed power to Trump. Stock markets also bounced back dramatically, and there were 75 consecutive months of job growth.
Under Trump, the unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent in its most recent reading, the lowest point since 2000.
Rhodes also wrote that Obama’s aides assured him that Obama would have won the election if he were permitted to run for another term, saying he had more in common with the next generation than Trump. However, this didn’t seem to cheer up Obama, who wondered whether his presidency came 10 or 20 years too early, according to the book.
U.S. manufacturers are hiring more workers, boosting wages and increasing domestic investments following the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
Seventy-two percent of manufacturers are ramping up workers’ wages and benefits, according to a new survey from the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM). Meanwhile, 77% of survey respondents said they were hiring more workers, while 86% are investing more in plants and equipment.
“Manufacturing in America is now rising to new heights, thanks to tax reform, and as a result, manufacturers of all sizes are already investing more, growing more, hiring more and paying more. They are already improving lives and livelihoods,” NAM Board Chair David Farr said in a statement.
Meanwhile, optimism among manufacturers remains near all-time highs. More than 93% of manufacturers have a positive outlook on their company’s prospects in the U.S. economy – the second-highest level ever recorded by the National Association of Manufacturers – its most recent quarterly survey revealed.
TRUMP’S MAGA ECONOMY ON FIRE! BIGGEST SURPLUS IN HISTORY, HISTORIC CORPORATE EARNINGS AND LOW UNEMPLOYMENT RATE – COMPLETE LIST!
COMPLETE LIST of the Results of the Incredible Trump Economy=> The Biggest Story Not Being Told Today
The Gateway Pundit by Joe Hoft
President Trump has now been in office a year and a quarter and the economic results of his efforts are astounding! In every economic measurement, President Trump’s economy is on fire and moving in the right direction.
Marketwatch reported in early May that the first quarter’s earnings are the best in a quarter century –
According to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, of the 343 companies, or about 70%, of S&P 500 members that have reported earnings to date, 79.9% have reported earnings per share that were above analysts’ expectations, putting the season on track for the highest earnings beat rate on record, going back to 1994.
So far, the first-quarter growth rate for EPS is 22%, compared with consensus earnings growth of 16.3% as of April 12, according to Lindsey Bell, investment strategist at CFRA. That outperformance is underpinned by some of the most highly valued companies, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM, -0.50% Apple Inc. AAPL, -0.44% Facebook Inc. FB, -0.32% and Amazon.com Inc. AMZN, -0.36%
Bell said recent quarterly results have seen outperformance of about 3 to 4 percentage points better than analysts’ consensus estimates on average, compared with the 5.7 percentage points earnings are currently running ahead.
The US had a surplus in April which was the greatest one month surplus in the country’s history. The Washington Times reported –
The federal government took in a record tax haul in April en route to its biggest-ever monthly budget surplus, the Congressional Budget Office said, as a surging economy left Americans with more money in their paychecks — and this more to pay to Uncle Sam.
All told the government collected $515 billion and spent $297 billion, for a total monthly surplus of $218 billion. That swamped the previous monthly record of $190 billion, set in 2001.
CBO analysts were surprised by the surplus, which was some $40 billion more than they’d guessed at less than a month ago.
Analysts said they’ll have a better idea of what’s behind the surge as more information rolls in, but for now said it looks like individual taxpayers are paying more because they have higher incomes.
Also according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics President Trump decreased unemployment to its current level of 3.9%. The unemployment rate in January 2017 was 4.8%.
President Obama on the other hand again moved in the opposite direction. In his first year and a quarter as President the US unemployment rate increased from 7.8% in January 2009 to 9.9% as of April 2010. The unemployment rate during this time reached as high as 10%.
Food stamps decreased significantly as reported by Breitbart from 42 million down to 40 million during President Trump’s time in office.
More than 2.2 million people have discontinued their participation in food stamps during President Trump’s first full year in office, according to the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data on food stamp enrollment.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. job growth increased less than expected in April and the unemployment rate dropped to near a 17-1/2-year low of 3.9 percent as some out-of-work Americans left the labor force.
The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday also showed wages barely rose last month, which may ease concerns that inflation pressures are rapidly building up, likely keeping the Federal Reserve on a gradual path of monetary policy tightening.
“Fed officials can rest easy that there is not any wage-based inflation on the horizon,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York. “There is no need to speed up the path of interest rates because inflation isn’t heating up in a worrisome manner.”