WHY POLLS ARE WRONG AND TRUMP LANDSIDE WIN IS COMING-HOW SANDERS’ VOTERS, DEM CROSSOVER, EVANGELICALS, GROWING NUMBER OF PRO-TRUMP MINORITIES AND SOCIAL MEDIA STATS ARE CRUSHING SICK HILLARY’S WAY TO THE WHITE HOUSE

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Polls are saying Donald Trump is losing to missing-in-action Hillary Clinton. But when you look at the real math, they are dead wrong.

Hillary Clinton don’t have 100% of the Democrat Party base backing her up.  She lost a lot of her base supporters to Trump like the Democrat crossovers ( Trumpocrats ),the NEVER-Hillary Bernie Sanders supporters and growing number of minorities forming groups like Blacks for Trump and Latinos for Trump. If you look at social media, Trump beats Hillary really hugeee. Let’s check the math below:

  1. ANTI-HILLARY BERNIE SANDERS DILEMMA :
  • Thanks to Wikileaks, Sanders’ voters found out the DNC primary was rigged. Then you got California primary a theft committed right in front of their eyes. And for that half of them won’t vote for Hillary, with some staying home and others will vote for Trump.
  • In 2012, Obama got 64 million votes while  Romney got 60 million. Hillary got 17 million Primary votes, Sanders 13 million. If half of Sanders’ people won’t vote for Hillary,  you subtract 6 million from Obama 64 million votes and you get 58 million left for Hillary. This means after Sanders debacle, Hillary only now has 58 million.
  • Of the 6 million Sanders’ voters who refuse to vote for Hillary, poll shows 20%-40% of them  will vote for Trump. So 6 million times 30% is about 2 million. Remember Romney only got 60 million votes. But now we will add to Trump’s 60 million voters  this 2 million votes from Sanders’ people and you get 62 million – 4 million more than Hillary’s 58 million. The numbers we gave you could actually double.

 

2.  THE 20% DEMOCRAT CROSSOVER TO TRUMP

  • As early as January 2016, a shocking poll by Mercury Analytics finds nearly 20% of the likely Democratic voters polled would cross over in the general election and vote for Republican front-runner Donald Trump. When crossover voters were asked how sure they were, 63% of the Democrats who said they would crossover were “100% sure.”
  • A June 25 article by Michael Harrington says 10-12 million Democrats vote in Republican primary and of 31 million who voted in the Republican Primary 38% approximately were Democrats. ( An Analysis of Democrat Cross-Over – facebook.com )
  • For a conservative estimate of crossover: According to Rasmussen July poll , a net  increase of 6% ( from last election) will crossover from Democrat Party to vote for Trump. So if Obama had 64 million votes minus 13 million non-Hillary voters from Sanders is 51 million times 6% gives us 3 million Democrats crossing over.

 

3. EVANGELICAL VOTE

  •  Trump is getting 5% more evangelical vote this time compared to 2012 which will add one million to Trump’s total. Bush had the evangelical support but it declined with McCain and more with Romney.
  • Ralph Reed, founder and chairman of the Faith & Freedom Coalition, claimed that evangelical Christians made up 27% of the electorate in 2012, a presidential year, and 32% of voters in the 2014 midterm elections.
  • Yet as many 17 million evangelicals stayed home in 2012, he added, an election in which President Obama beat Mitt Romney by some 5 million votes.
  • Estimates suggest there were as many as 17 million “missing” evangelical voters in 2012. In the 2008 and 2012 elections, “the evangelical Christians stayed at home” because they didn’t have a candidate they could support. If they show up, this 17 million evangelicals will give Trump a historic landslide.
  • LATEST:

 

4. MINORITIES: BLACKS FOR TRUMP AND LATINOS FOR TRUMP MOVEMENT

 

  • Black leaders endorsing Trump are increasing. Groups like Blacks for Trump and Latinos for Trump are growing in support and as Trump promise to campaign in inner cities, this number will grow even bigger.
  • Obama received 93% of the black vote. Recent polls say Trump will receive 10-14% of black vote. In 2012, Romney only got 7%. This 2016, Trump will pick up a gain of 5% which is about one million more votes for Trump and less for Hillary.

UPDATE 10/19/16:

Polling shows in 2012, Obama received 91% of Black, 88% of Asian, 74% of Latino votes and this 2016 Hillary is only receiving 74% Black, 74% of Asian and 64% of Hispanic in polling. If you take the difference of Hillary loss of support and multiply it by the voters in that category in 2012, Hillary lost 5 million votes.

 

5. DEMOCRAT VOTERS DOWN DURING PRIMARIES COMPARED TO GOP

 

6. SOCIAL MEDIA ENTHUSIASM FAVORS TRUMP, HILLARY A SNOOOZZZE!

 

7. ENTHUSIASM GAP: THE ENERGIZED TRUMP BASE COMPARED TO SLEEPY HILLARY’S

  • Democrat Party has suffered from low voters turn out this Primary election compared to energized base of the Republican Primary. The Dems have 4.5 million less registered voters compared to last time.
  • RALLIES DON’T LIE! Trump’s rallies show long lines, huge crowds and energized supporters. Hillary – who plays invisible this election season – can’t even fill up a high school gym.
  •  On the eve of the 2008 election, 45 percent of Democrats described themselves as “very enthusiastic,” compared with only 28 percent of Republicans. That resulted in a 7-point victory for Obama over Arizona Sen. John McCain.

8. NON-ESTABLISHMENT POLLS SHOW TRUMP IS AHEAD BIG TIME

 

FINAL ANALYSIS

NOTE: We are going to use the LEAST estimate number in our math..

Let’s start by giving Hillary Clinton the 64 million votes Obama got in 2012. But instead of adding, we will do a series subtractions from this 64 million votes. After these series of deductions, Hillary Clinton will end up with 50 million votes – that’s a scary  14 million less than Obama in 2012.

64 million – 6 million ( NEVER HILLARY Sanders voters) – 3 million ( Democrats crossover to Trump ) – 4 million ( less registered voters) – 1 million black votes ( Blacks for Trump ) = 50 million votes

 

Now let’s go to Trump and give him 60 million, the votes Romney got in 2012. But instead of subtracting like we did with Hillary we will be doing a series of addition to Trump’s 60 million based from Hillary Clinton’s ship jumping base. When we’re done Trump’s 60 million will become 67 million – 7 million more extra and 2 million more than Barack Obama’s number in 2012.

60 million + 2 million ( LEAST estimate from Sanders crossover ) + 3 million ( Democrats crossover to Trump ) + 1 million ( Black crossover ) + 1 million ( Evangelicals ) = 67 million

.  Hillary’s 50 million is 43% of the vote and Trump’s 67 million is 57% of the vote making it a net 14% lead for Trump- a LANDSLIDE WIN FOR TRUMP.  This math makes the new non-establishment polls make sense. The liberal polls have a math error. We did not adjust for Latino vote, our personal polling of Latinos  in Nevada told us half of Latinos refuse to vote for Hillary and Obama got 71% Latino support and majority of Hillary supporters are concentrated in Southwest and particularly California.

Also, liberal Democrat polls call 500-1,000 people only. It is also known that if you say you are for Trump they may put the phone down and not count your poll numbers. The next problem is that a polling company decided earlier to take 500 Democrats and 500 Republicans – whatever number they decided – The liberal polls do not take into consideration many of the voters for Obama refuse to vote for Hillary and this is the game changer.

UPDATE: In the 35 year old and younger Hillary Clinton is running 15% to 30% behind Obama in 2012, so she again lost about 6 million vote in this group, and the 6 million could be as high as 12 million lost votes. Many of these 35 years old and younger may be voting for Trump, another loss for Clinton on the crossover.

There is a crossover of union and old Democrats voting for Trump. In 2012, Obama only won by 4-5 million so this loss to Hillary Clinton is a serious problem. We learned from employees of a MAJOR  TV NEWS NETWORK that they know Trump is winning by a landslide, but the news will report Hillary winning in the polls. The News is dependent on globalist corporations advertising money and money demands that the news says Hillary is ahead in the polls. Remember the above poll numbers comes from VOX liberal press.

 

SPREAD THE GOOD NEWS! PLEASE SHARE THIS ON YOUR FACEBOOK, TWITTER AND OTHER SOCIAL MEDIA SCCOUNTS. THANK YOU.

13 thoughts on “WHY POLLS ARE WRONG AND TRUMP LANDSIDE WIN IS COMING-HOW SANDERS’ VOTERS, DEM CROSSOVER, EVANGELICALS, GROWING NUMBER OF PRO-TRUMP MINORITIES AND SOCIAL MEDIA STATS ARE CRUSHING SICK HILLARY’S WAY TO THE WHITE HOUSE

    Invisible Mikey said:
    August 29, 2016 at 6:20 pm

    Well, I was initially willing to consider examining some of your outlier poll sources, since you have to admit they assert percentages no others do in terms of crossover. However, the first two links didn’t work, (Mercury Analytics, Michael Harrington), the “grad student independent project” referred to at American Lookout isn’t any kind of nationally recognized organization, and social media definitely can’t be relied on for any kind of predictive purpose.

    Both campaigns use “bots” (message generators) to make fake posts on FaceBook and Twitter, just like the spam that shows up on WP. In addition, there are paid posters working for both sides. In essence, it functions as propaganda space, like AM talk radio. You can read whatever you “like” on social media, but there’s no consistent content or accounting baseline.

    A preference for untested, untestable, or unverified information is a form of confirmation bias, though there are also other cognitive biases present here. You can’t imagine Trump losing and don’t wish to face the possibility, so you go looking for numbers to back up your assumption, ignoring the invalidity when they are from unreliable sources.

    Section #7 (in the graphic) asks whether I believe “millions”, or “elitist polls’. Since the “millions” include the judgments of my plumber, my landscaper, the neighbor who never leaves his apartment and my teen grandkids, yes, I feel the “elitists” are more likely to have a factual basis for their opinions. I actually prefer to rely on aggregate comparison sources, sites where they list all the polls professionals consider reliable, and then average the results. This underlines likely trends by reducing emphasis on outlier results inappropriately weighted in one or the other direction.
    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
    http://www.270towin.com/2016-polls-clinton-trump/
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

    Like

      70news responded:
      August 29, 2016 at 10:13 pm

      I just don’t trust polls conducted by elite establishment who’ve been caught many times rigging the polls, playing magic numbers and they themselves admit they are puzzled by the fact that their ‘winner’ Hillary has a crowd enthusiasm the same way Monica Lewinsky was excited with her Bill Clinton sex scandal. The left has credibility problem and once it’s gone, it’s hard to bring it back. DNC is facing a negative enthusiasm right now while Trump is off the charts when it comes to his. Hillary doesn’t have her base support, but Trump gets crossover and looks like it’s just going to grow more before November 8.

      Like

        Invisible Mikey said:
        August 30, 2016 at 3:07 am

        I accept that’s your conclusion. I just disagree, because I doubt very much that 90% of the polls are rigged. Sure, there are a few that are propaganda disguised as research, but it’s not so hard to identify those:
        http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

        You and I have fundamental differences in the methods we choose to evaluate information. I’m not suggesting that makes yours inferior, but it’s not how I think. I’m a scientist by training. I don’t know how to quantify stuff like “enthusiasm”, even if it might affect results. I understand counting yes, no and maybe, and how to identify and (hopefully) avoid sampling biases. I worked on a number of treatment efficacy studies over the years.

        Even the election itself will not provide a definitive answer as to how whoever wins won. But I do enjoy examining the differences in how you and I perceive things.

        Like

        wigglyhashashin7777 said:
        August 30, 2016 at 2:37 pm

        are you seriously naïve enough to believe that social media is a scientific indicator of who is going to win??? u seriously don’t know how easily it is to manipulate?

        and the poll with 50000 people is clearly fake, it is impossible to do in 2 weeks and would cost over a million dollars

        Like

        70news responded:
        August 31, 2016 at 5:20 am

        Numbers don’t lie. Obvious enthusiasm from social media and rallies not faked. You can say all you want about the ‘validity’ of your ‘scientific indicator’ but you cannot refute the figures and reasons quoted on this article on why Trump is going to win landslide. INVISIBLE Hillary has nothing but SCANDALS everyday and with her being sick, she would be nothing but a big, leaky mess during the debate.

        Like

        wigglyhashashin7777 said:
        August 30, 2016 at 2:41 pm

        its clear that you have very little grasp on how statistics work

        Like

    Heather Ward said:
    August 29, 2016 at 10:37 pm

    I say let them keep their fake polls with Hillary winning by a landslide. Then democrats will get lazy and stay home on election day. Republicans will come out in full force because they want to give their man a shot.

    Liked by 1 person

    Frank Z. said:
    September 13, 2016 at 5:25 am

    I think a couple of things might affect your prediction. First of all, you also have to count the number of Republicans who are not voting for Trump (and might end up voting for Hillary). Second, you have to try and figure out which States are going to have these extra millions of voters. If they are all in a few States, then Trump only wins those States (maybe by a very large margin), and that doesn’t necessarily give him the other States. You can have the majority of voters overall and still not win the race, because they are concentrated in too few States.

    Like

    johnlocke445 said:
    September 23, 2016 at 4:08 pm

    Just look at how deplorable the big money polls did in the midterm elections of 2014. They all showed a Democrat landslide right up to election day. However, we all know what really happened. The Republicans took more seats in the House, took control of the Senate and did pretty well in the Governor races. When polls throw in biases such as predicting what is a “likely voter” they cease operating as a poll.

    Like

    Lon Spector said:
    October 2, 2016 at 12:10 pm

    Google the song “King Of Wishful Thinking.”
    It’s EMOTIONS that carry the day. “Racist. Fascist. Sexist. Homophope.”
    The results of this “rigged-from-the-pit-election” will be because of demographics
    and media deceit. No one is strong enough to overcome that.
    Especially when the charactercure is just playing a role, and was put up against
    the wicked witch because he was the only one she could beat.

    Like

    Lon Spector said:
    October 4, 2016 at 1:25 pm

    But wishful thinking IS to be expected and understood.
    It’s hard to accept the fact that we live in a society simular to the 1960’s
    T.V. program “I Dream Of Jeannie.” Whenever Dr. Bellows would see another
    unbelievable scam pulled off by Major Nelson, he’d say, “He’s done it to me again.”
    In 2016 America SATAN is doing it to us again and again.

    Like

    70news responded:
    October 27, 2016 at 4:28 am

    I am a CPA and I think your information is one of the most accurate I have seen so far, good job.

    Like

    70news responded:
    November 7, 2016 at 11:47 pm

    Reblogged this on 70news.

    Like

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